8/25/2023 0 Comments Prepare for future armed conflict![]() For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited linking directly to this product page is encouraged. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program within RAND Arroyo Center. ground forces participate less in deterrence missions, but this reduction is offset by a forecasted increase in demand from combat missions. ![]() In the scenario that models an isolationist United States, U.S.ground forces increases only modestly from the baseline scenario, with increased demand strongest for deterrence and stability missions. In the scenario that models a global pandemic, based on a reprise of the 1918–1920 Spanish Flu, the demand for U.S.ground forces, including combat forces, were seen in the scenarios that model a Global Depression and a substantially more revisionist China. The largest increases in demands for U.S.The report also describes the results of four alternative scenarios that differ dramatically from the anticipated baseline: ground interventions, although locations vary across combat, deterrence, and stabilization missions. The Middle East, Eurasia, and East/Southeast Asia are the most likely locations for future demand for U.S.stability operation between now and 2040. There is a substantial likelihood that there will be demand for a sizable U.S.ground interventions is expected to decline slightly or remain the same, but this trend is accompanied by a projected increase in the forces required to meet the demands of these interventions. The risk of interstate war appears likely to increase, although it is likely to remain low by historical standards.ground forces through 2040 under different scenarios. This report describes a model that can be used to project trends in armed conflict and demands for U.S. This analysis identifies key factors that can serve as early warning indicators of future conflicts and provides an improved empirical basis for estimating the frequency, magnitude, duration, and overlap of future contingencies. ![]() ground interventions, including those involving deterrence, combat, and stabilization activities and the anticipated average force requirements for those interventions. The authors present three main types of projections: trends in the future operating environment, including the incidence of interstate wars and intrastate conflicts future U.S. ground interventions themselves for each year in the 2017–2040 time frame. intervention-including armed conflicts and their aftermath-and U.S. The model the authors have developed incorporates annual projections of opportunities for U.S. ground interventions in a range of scenarios through the year 2040. It does so by presenting a dynamic forecasting model that projects future U.S. This report provides empirically grounded assessments of potential future demands for U.S. forces for the kinds of missions they are most likely to encounter in the future and for the contingencies that pose the greatest strategic risk to the United States. Military planners need tools that leverage emergent trends in the global geostrategic environment to forecast future contingencies to preemptively build, shape, and prepare U.S. This planning is an exercise in risk management across the wide array of potential threats facing the United States. Army devotes significant resources to strategic and operational planning. To defend against potential threats, the U.S.
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